A complete decision protocol drawn from decision science, for the choice that keeps you up at night.
About 30 minutes · 6 parts
Work through the parts in order. Don't skip to the decision. The answer usually shows up in Part 3 or 4.
1.Write the decision as a question:
2.Is this the real decision, or a symptom of a bigger one? What's the decision underneath it?
3.When does this actually need to be decided, and who says so?
Most people compare "do it" against "don't." Decisions framed as only two options go wrong more often than those with several.
4.The vanishing options test: if none of your current options were possible, what would you do instead?
| Option | Best realistic case | Worst realistic case | What I'd have to believe for this to be right |
|---|---|---|---|
| Facts (verified) | Assumptions (I believe) | Unknowns (I could find out) |
|---|---|---|
5.The one unknown that would change the decision most, and how you could test it within a week:
6.Premortem: it's one year from now and this went badly. Write the story of what happened.
7.Argue the other side: make the strongest possible case for the option you're leaning against.
8.Advice to a friend: if your closest friend brought you this exact situation, what would you tell them?
9.10 / 10 / 10: how will you feel about each option in 10 minutes, 10 months and 10 years?
10.Name what you feel about each option (fear, relief, excitement, guilt, dread…).
11.Which of those feelings is about the option itself, and which is about how other people will react?
12.My decision:
13.Tripwire: I'll revisit this decision if ________ happens by ________.
14.The first action I'll take within 48 hours: